& TheDowTheory.com
| & TheDowTheory.com |
|
The following shows that BEAR markets have been followed (9 months on average) by recessions 71% of the time:
| Bear Markets and Recessions | Bear Market Start to Recession Start: | |||||
| Bear Market Dates: | Recessions: |
Length |
Lead time: |
% Drop: |
Total Bear
|
|
| ------------- | ----------------- | ----------- |
------------ |
---------- |
-------------- |
|
| 6/01-11/03 | 9/02 - 8/04 |
23 |
15 months | -15% |
46.1% |
|
| 1/06-11/07 | 5/07 - 6/08 |
13 |
16 |
-21 |
48.5 |
|
| 11/09- 9/11 | 1/10 - 1/12 |
24 |
2 |
-6 |
27.4 |
|
| 9/12 - 7/14 | 1/13-12/14 |
23 |
4 |
-10 |
24.6 |
|
| 11/16-12/17 | 8/18 - 3/19 |
7 |
21 |
-25 |
40.1 |
|
| 11/19 -8/21 | 1/20 - 7/21 |
18 |
2 |
-13 |
46.6 |
|
| 3/23-10/23 | 5/23- 7/24 |
14 |
2 |
-8 |
18.6 |
|
(10/26-11/27) |
13 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a | ||
| 9/29 - 7/32 | 8/29 - 3/33* |
43 |
-1 |
0 |
89.2 |
|
| 3/37 - 3/38 | 5/37 - 6/38 |
13 |
2 |
-11 |
49.1 |
|
| 11/38-4/42 | None |
n/a |
n/a |
41.3 |
||
(2/45-10/45) |
8 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a | ||
| 5/46 - 6/49 | 11/48-10/49 |
11 |
30 |
-17 |
24.0 |
|
(7/53 - 5/54) |
10 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a | ||
| 4/56-10/57 | 8/57 - 4/58 |
8 |
16 |
-7 |
19.4 |
|
(4/60 - 2/61) |
10 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a | ||
| 12/61- 6/62 | None/"mild" |
n/a |
n/a |
27.1 |
||
| 2/66-10/66 | None/but...** |
n/a |
n/a |
25.2 |
||
| 12/68- 5/70 | 12/69-11/70 |
11 |
12 |
-19 |
35.9 |
|
| 1/73-12/74 | 11/73- 3/75 |
16 |
10 |
-15 |
45.1 |
|
| 9/76- 2/78 | None |
n/a |
n/a |
26.9 |
||
| 9/78- 4/80 | 1/80 - 7/80 |
6 |
16 |
-3 |
16.4 |
|
| 4/81- 8/82 | 7/81-11/82 |
16 |
3 |
-6 |
24.1 |
|
| 8/87-10/87 | None |
n/a |
n/a |
36.1 |
||
| 7/90-10/90 | 7/90 - 3/91 |
8 | 0 |
0 |
21.2 |
|
| 7/98-8/98 | None | n/a |
n/a |
19.3 |
||
| 1/00-3/01 | 3/01 - 11/01 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 29.7 | |
| 3/02-10/02 | None | n/a |
n/a | 31.5 | ||
| 10/07-to date | ? | |||||
|
Average: | 14.4 mos. | 9.6 mos. | -10.8% |
33.9% |
|
| *Depression **Growth recession per Forbes Magazine (1/23/89) Industrial production fell from 1st Q 1967 to 3rd Q of 1967 Þ The BOTTOM LINE: 71% of BEAR Markets have been followed by Recessions. Only 4 (of the total of 21 Recessions in parenthesis) were not immediately preceded by BEAR Markets).The following are additional pages of this section: |
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