Editor's note: Jack Schannep edits the Schannep Timing Indicator and TheDowTheory.com newsletters (thedowtheory.com).

TUCSON, Ariz. (MarketWatch) -- "California or bust" was the battle cry of the forty-niners, and most of them made it to the Golden State even if they didn't find gold.

Count me among those who would think that surpassing the March closing high for the year is a 'gimmie,' given that the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) , Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX) and most other indexes have made new highs already. So why is it so important? The original Dow Theory requires that the Dow Industrials and Transports confirm each other if a move is to be valid.

In the current case we are not talking about a new buy signal (that occurred in 2003 at the 8,582.68 level) but rather if the market is "in the clear," finally out of the extended trading range it has been in for most of 2005.

I use this expression rather than "all clear" that some Dow Theorists use, as that seems to imply "for evermore." Nothing is for always -- if it were, we would simply buy and hold. And we know there is a time to buy, and a time to sell.

"In the clear" means "for now," and as with flying on top of the clouds, we need to keep our eyes open and look around for other clouds, or other aircraft. And what is the significance?

If the bull market is continuing, as such a move would confirm, then this market completed its third year on Oct. 9 and the odds are 87% that it will continue to its fourth anniversary. Over the past 100-plus years, there have only been eight times that bull markets lasted three years, and then seven of them went on to last four years or longer with an average gain of 20% in that fourth year.

Compared to all of the bull markets over the past 100-plus years, this market was in the third quartile as to longevity but only the first in terms of advance. The significance of that can best be illustrated by looking at the previous four slowest climbing bull markets that lasted over three years, which were '49-'55, '57-'61, '62-'66, and '90-'98.

Their first-year gains were 40%, 29%, 32% and 26% vs. 33% for this current bull market, respectively. Second-year gains were 10%, 15%, 17% and 5% vs. 4% for this one. Their third-year figures were 7%, down 7%, 3%, 14% vs. 2% this time. Three of the four then completed the fourth year off 1%, up 21% and up8%. The full gains from start to finish of the four were: 222% over 82 months, 75% over 50 months, 85% over 43 months, and 294% over 93 months.

So those precedents are encouraging in as much as this market is only up 50% over 37 months so far.

A monthly high in New York Stock Exchange volume usually precedes a high for the stock market by some five months. October set a new record high for volume in this bull market, which is suggestive of further gains ahead. Consumer confidence similarly peaks five months ahead, on average, of the stock market's peak and the recent sharp rise in November implies its peak is still ahead.

The third top is not so easy to read: the yield curve is flattening but not yet inverted. "Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and other economists have argued that a yield curve inversion need not presage a recession," The Wall Street Journal recently noted. I'm not so sure. So I keep an eye out on the possibility of tops occurring for each of the above indicators. This could occur in 2006, if they haven't already. But until and unless that happens the outlook for the bull market continuing is favorable.

All of my market-timing indicators are still in buy modes, as they have been over the past one, two and three years respectively. If an investor has funds available, he or she should put them to work in the market even now. The market has been consolidating most of 2005 and this recent "coming to life" should point to a favorable 2006. I use the exchange-traded funds that best track the major market indexes, such as Diamonds (DIA) , Spiders (SPY) , and the New York Stock Exchange Composite (NYC) .