 &TheDowTheory.com |
The Dow Theorist's Sweepstakes |
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is 3,683 points above where it
was 13+ years ago.
The three major Dow Theorists had been under a BUY signal for many years up until the
SELL signal on August 4th, 1998.
After agreeing on that signal their
interpretations diverged considerably until they came together again
briefly on November 21st, 2007, and again on August 2nd, 2011.
The results of the points captured (or lost)
on long and short positions by each Dow Theorist for the last 13+ years:
Schannep +7,777.34pts,
Russell -9,841.88 pts,
and Moroney
-9,578.44 pts
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Each of these Letters are monitored by Hulbert Financial Digest and their performance is verified and charted below:
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Schannep
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Russell
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Moroney
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During the entire timeframe, Buy & Hold gained
+3336.39 pts, or
+39.3%.
The distressing results for the other Dow Theorists shown above are an embarrassment
and detracts from the reputation of the
Dow Theory itself. That is one reason I wrote my book, to help reinstate
the Dow Theory to the high status it deserves.
In "Dow Theory for the 21st
Century:
Technical Indicators for Improving Your Investment Results" (published by John Wiley & Sons) I have laid out modern
rules that improve the record of the Dow Theory considerably. My
interpretation uses capitulation, when it occurs, as the time to start buying
into the Dow Theory buy signal which has always followed. After that I
would add to
the position after the bounce, in the pullback phase. Finally,
completion of a Dow Theory buy signal is signaled by the first of the
Dow Jones Industrials, or Transports, to join the S&P500 reaching highs above the
previous bounce. Using this approach throughout the period above would have
improved the results shown above.
This site can be accessed at either
www.TheDowTheory.com or
www.TimingIndicator.com
Historical market statistics, while believed accurate, and past performance cannot guarantee future results.
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