 &
TheDowTheory.com |
The Dow Theorist's Sweepstakes |
The three major Dow Theorists had been under a BUY signal for many years up until the
SELL signal on August 4th, 1998. After agreeing on that signal their
interpretations diverged considerably until they came together again on
November 21st, 2007. At the bottom you will see a tabulation of the points
captured (or lost) during this period.
|
Jack
Schannep
TheDowTheory.com |
Richard
Russell
Dow Theory Letters |
Richard
Moroney
Dow Theory Forecasts |
| Signal: |
Date: |
Dow Jones: |
Date: |
Dow Jones: |
Date: |
Dow Jones: |
| SELL |
8/4/98 |
8487.31 |
8/4/98 |
8487.31 |
8/4/98 |
8487.31 |
|
See 8/1/98 Letter |
See 7/29/98 Letter |
See 8/3?/98 Letter |
| Profit to |
|
+462.98 pts |
(loss) |
-2527.38 pts |
(loss) |
-2527.38 pts |
| BUY |
9/15/98
|
8024.39 |
5/3/99 |
11014.69 |
5/3/99 |
11014.69 |
| |
9/15/98 Letter |
|
5/19/99 Letter |
|
4/26/99 Letter |
|
| Profit to |
|
+2294.20 pts |
(loss) |
-696.10 pts |
(loss) |
-994.98 pts |
| SELL |
9/23/99 |
10318.59 |
9/23/99 |
10318.59 |
10/15/99 |
10019.71 |
| |
9/23/99 Letter |
|
9/23/99 Letter |
|
10/18/99 Letter |
|
| Profit to |
|
+731.07 pts |
|
|
(loss) |
-349.15 pts |
| BUY |
11/8/01 |
9587.52 |
no |
signal |
3/1/02 |
10368.86 |
| |
11/18/01 Letter |
|
|
|
3/4/02 Letter |
|
| Profit to |
(loss) |
-460.72 pts |
|
|
|
|
| SELL |
6/25/02 |
9126.62 |
no |
signal |
no |
signal |
| |
6/25/02 Letter |
|
|
|
|
|
| Profit to |
|
+404.08 pts |
|
|
|
|
| BUY |
25% on 7/19/02 |
8019.26 |
no |
signal |
no |
signal |
| |
7/19/02 e-mail |
|
|
|
|
|
| |
75% on 8/21/02 |
8957.23 |
|
|
|
|
| |
8/21/02 e-mail |
|
|
|
|
|
| Profit to |
(loss) |
-955.58 pts |
no |
signal |
(loss) |
-3082.59 pts |
| SELL |
75% on 9/24/02 |
7683.13 |
|
|
10/9/02 |
7286.27 |
| |
9/24/02 e-mail |
|
|
|
10/10/02 Hotline |
|
| Profit to |
(loss) |
-746.36 pts |
|
|
|
|
| BUY |
75% on 11/5/02 |
8678.27 |
no |
signal |
no |
signal |
| |
11/5/02 Letter |
|
|
|
|
|
| Profit to |
(loss) |
-382.51 pts |
|
|
|
|
| SELL |
1/24/03 |
8131.01 |
no |
signal |
no |
signal |
| |
2/11/03 Letter |
|
|
|
|
|
| Profit to |
(loss) |
-451.67 pts |
(loss) |
-2994.38 pts |
(loss) |
-1752.71 pts |
| BUY |
5/2/03 |
8582.68 |
5/7/07 |
13312.97 |
6/4/03 |
9038.98 |
| |
5/2/03 e-mail |
|
5/7/07 posting |
|
6/4/03 Hotline |
|
| Profit to |
|
+4446.24 pts |
|
|
|
|
| SELL |
8/14/07 |
13,028.92 |
no |
signal |
no |
signal |
| |
8/14/07 Letter |
|
|
|
|
|
| Profit to |
(loss) |
-1037.09 pts |
|
|
|
|
| BUY |
50% on11/5/07 |
14,066.01 |
no |
signal |
no |
signal |
| |
11/5/07 e-mail |
|
|
|
|
|
| Profit to |
|
0.00 pts
(net) |
(loss) |
-467.19 pts |
|
+3806.80 pts |
| SELL |
50% on 11/21/07 |
12,845.78 |
11/21/07 |
12,845.78 |
11/21/07 |
12,845.78 |
| |
11/22/07 e-mail |
|
11/21/07 post |
|
11/21/07 Hotline |
|
| Profit to |
(loss) |
-3.58 pts |
|
+233.35 pts |
(loss) |
-3.58 pts |
| BUY |
50% on 4/18/08 |
12,849.36 |
4/7/08 |
12,612.43 |
|
12,849.36 |
| |
4/25/08 e-mail |
|
4/7/08 post |
|
4/18/08 Hotline |
|
| Profit to |
|
0.00 pts (net) |
marked to mkt: |
-769.74 pts |
marked to mkt: |
-1006.67 pts |
| SELL |
50% on 6/20/08 |
11,842.69 |
no |
signal |
no |
signal |
| |
6/22/08 e-mail |
|
|
|
|
|
| Total |
Advantage: |
+4304.63 pts |
Disadvantage: |
-
7221.44 pts |
Disadvantage: |
-
5911.26
pts |
|
Frankly, I find these results unsatisfactory.
Fortunately, help
is on the way. In "Dow Theory for the 21st Century:
Technical Indicators for Improving Your Investment Results" (recently
released by John Wiley & Sons) I have laid out modern
rules that improve the record of the Dow Theory considerably. My
interpretation uses capitulation, when it occurs, as the time to start buying
into the Dow Theory buy signal which has always followed. After that I
would add to
the position after the bounce, in the pullback phase. Finally,
completion of a Dow Theory buy signal is signaled by the first two of the
Dow Jones Industrials, the Transports, or the S&P500 reaching highs above the
previous bounce. Using this approach, I have been able to identify signals which would have more than
doubled the results shown above:
+
10211.86 points to be exact.
For a sneak preview into the signals which would have had
these results, click here.
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