COMPOSITE Timing Indicator, The Complete Record

Whenever a 1st Buy signal of any of Capitulation, the Dow Theory for the 21st Century, or the Schannep Timing Indicator, buy to 50% invested; if a 2nd type of Buy occurs go to fully invested, i.e. add another 50%. If the 2nd Buy is another capitulation then add just another 25%, adding the final 25% when another type Buy signal occurs. If a buy is reversed in time by the same type signal return to the original position, i.e. if 50% was bought then sell that 50% upon a reverse signal occurring. 

Whenever a 1st Sell Indicator occurs sell 1/2 or 50%, upon a 2nd sell out 100%.

Bold Italicized percentage is 1st Buy or Sell, underlined percentage completes 100%.
Dates shown are dates of signals.  [Here is a tweak for possibly getting better execution prices: 'Action' dates can be days later,  most likely is the Schannep Timing Indicator when Monetary component figures are released. In the case of a sell, 'wait and watch' if there are intervening 'obvious' UP days and hold off to enter the sell order until the first 'obvious' DOWN day to execute;  (may require waiting until the last minutes of the trading day). For Buy signals the opposite procedure. Does NOT apply to Capitulation Buys.]
I use equal amounts of Diamonds (DIA), Spiders (SPY) and the NYSE i-Shares (NYC) so as to participate fully in the market's advances/declines, however the results shown are from using the Dow Jones Industrial Average only. Results shown include dividends received and interest earned on 3 month Treasuries as received quarterly. Market levels are for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. When Bull/Bear markets become "official" both the DJIA and the S&P500 levels are shown.
The Dow Theory for the 21st Century is used in place of the original/traditional Dow Theory.  As it was only spelled out with the publication of my book in 2008, these results are from backtesting for the most part.  If the rules for this indicator were followed explicitly and had the data been available throughout this timeframe, the results would have been as shown:

Buy Signal Type Date/Level

Buy or Sell Date/Level

Buy or Sell Date/Level

 Buy or Sell Date/Level

COMPOSITE Indicator

Start 12/31/53 

Capitulation

%

The Dow Theory

%

Schannep Timing
Indicator

%

Definition of "Official" Bull or Bear met

%

Signal

$10,000
 

B-1/6/54@283.96

 50 Bull- Previously in existence

$10,001

  B-1/25/54@290.40

50

< Fully Invested at 100%

 Average Buy 287.19

$10,131

 

4/6/56 Bull Mkt High:

521.05

S-8/20/56@511.24

50

$19,887

S-2/5/57@469.96

50

 < to 100% 'cash'

Average Sell 490.60

$19,404 

           

Bear-10/17/57 @436.87
(S&P@40.65)

 n/a    

10/22/57 Bear Mkt Low:

419.79

B-4/21/58@450.72

50

$20,049

B-5/5/58@461.12

50

 < Fully Invested at 100%  

Average Buy 455.92

$20,302

           

Bull-7/25/58 @501.76
(S&P@46.97)

 n/a    

S-11/12/59@644.26

50

 

$29,839

   

S-2/16/60@611.33

50

 < to 100% 'cash' No Bear market Average Sell 627.80

$29,386

                Year-end 12/30/60@615.89

$30,065

B-1/3/61@610.25

50

 

$30,071

B-2/20/61@653.65

 50 < Fully Invested at 100%   Average Buy 654.00

$31,251

12/13/61 Bull Mkt High

734.91
                Year-end 12/29/61@731.14

$35,838

S-4/12/62@685.67

50

$33,917

S-5/10/62@647.23

50

< to 100% 'cash'

  

Average Sell 666.45

$33,048
            Bear-5/25/62 @611.88
(S&P@59.47)		 n/a    

B-6/22/62@539.19

50

 

$33,152

6/26/62 Bear Mkt Low:

535.76
   

B-7/31/62@597.93

50

 < Fully Invested at 100%      

Average Buy 568.56

$35,075

B-11/14/62@630.48
 

n/a

        
           

Bull-11/29/62 @652.61
(S&P@62.41)

 n/a    
                Year-end 12/31/62@652.10

$38,836
                Year-end 12/31/63@762.95

$46,885
                Year-end 12/31/64@874,13

$55,432
                Year-end 12/31/65@969.26

$63,449

2/9/66 Bull Mkt High:

995.15

Capitulation

%

The Dow Theory

%

Schannep Indicator

%

Official Bull or Bear

%

COMPOSITE

Value

S-5/2/66@931.95

50

$61,638

S-5/6/66@902.83

50

 < to 100% 'cash'    

Average Sell 917.39

$60,700
           

Bear-8/22/66@792.03
(S&P@78.24)

 n/a    

10/7/66 Bear Mkt Low:

744.32

B-12/13/66@816.70

 50    

 

     $62,464
   

B-12/27/66@792.20

50

 < Fully Invested at 100%   Average Buy 804.45

$61,630
                Year-end 12/31/66@785.69

$61,143
           

Bull-4/24/67@887.53  (S&P@92.62)

 n/a    
   

S-11/2/67@864.85

50

          

$69,240
                Year-end 12/31/67@905.11

$71,292

S-1/22/68@871.71

50

< to 100% 'cash'

Average Sell 868.28

$70,158

B-4/11/68@905.69

50

 No Bear market

 

$70,896

B-9/24/68@938.28 50 < Fully Invested at 100% Average Buy 921.99

$73,540

12/3/68 Bull Mkt High:

985.21
                Year-end 12/31/68@943.75

$74,602

S-2/20/69@916.65

50

$72,793

S-3/7/69@911.18

50

 < to 100% 'cash'  

Average Sell 913.92

$72,712
           

Bear-7/28/69 @806.23
(S&P@90.21)

 n/a    

B-10/16/69@838.77

50

  

$75,501
Year-end 12/31/69@800.36

$74,632

S-1/26/70@768.88

50

< to 100% 'cash'

 No Bull market

$73,442

B-5/25/70@641.36

50

$75,016

   

5/26/70 Bear Mkt Low:

631.16
B-8/21/70@745.41

50

 < Fully Invested at 100%

$82,090

B-8/24/70@759.58
 

n/a

Average Buy 693.34

$81,836

   

Bull-9/4/70@771.15
(S&P@82.83)

 n/a  
                Year-end 12/31/70@838.92

$93,675

S-7/28/71@872.01

50

   No Bear market

$99,269

                Year-end 12/31/71@890.20

$101,999

B-1/12/72@910.82

50

< Fully Invested at 100%

  

$103,283
                Year-end 12/29/72@1020.02

$119,204

1/11/73 Bull Mkt High:

1051.70

Capitulation

%

The Dow Theory

%

Schannep Indicator

%

Official Bull or Bear

%

COMPOSITE

Value
   

S-2/23/73@959.89

50

      

$112,751

   

S-2/26/73@953.79

50

     < to 100% 'cash'

Average Sell 956.84

$112,433

Bear-8/21/73@857.84
(S&P@100.89)

n/a

  
   

B-10/22/73@960.57

50

 No Bull Market  

$117,454

S-11/20/73@844.90

50

< to 100% 'cash'

  

$110,889
                Year-end 12/29/73@850.86

$111,770

B-8/23/74@686.80

50

  

$117,180

B-9/30/74@607.87

 25          

$111,206
    B-10/21/74@669.82

25

< Fully Invested at 100%

      

Average Buy 662.82

$120,086

 

   B-11/4/74@657.23

n/a

  

12/6/74 Bear Mkt Low:

577.60

                Year-end 12/29/74@616.242

$111,766

Bull-1/27/75@692.66
(S&P@75.37)

 n/a
                Year-end 12/29/75@852.41

$161,621

9/21/76 Bull Mkt High:

1014.79

S-11/9/76@930.77

50

$182,173
                Year-end 12/29/76@1004.65

$190,522

S-10/31/77@818.35

50

 < to 100% 'cash'  

Average Sell 874.56

$179,881
                Year-end 12/29/77@831.17

$181,605
           

Bear-1/10/78@781.53
(S&P@90.17)

 n/a    

2/28/78 Bear Mkt Low:

742.12

B-4/17/78@810.12

50

 

$184,833

B-6/5/78@863.83

 50 < Fully Invested at 100%   Average Buy 836.98

$192,410

Bull-8/3/78@886.87
(S&P@103.51)

 n/a
 

9/11/78 Bull Mkt High:

907.74
Capitulation

The Dow Theory

%

Schannep Indicator

%

Official Bull or Bear

%

COMPOSITE

Value

S-10/17/78@866.34

50

$196,612

S-10/26/78@821.12

50

 < to 100% 'cash'  

Average Sell 843.73

$191,804

                Year-end 12/29/78@805.01

$194,504
   

B-1/4/79@826.14

50

     No Bull market  

$194,727
                Year-end 12/31/79@838.74

$210,991
           

Bear-3/26/80@762.12
(S&P@98.68)

 50 < to 100% 'cash'

$205,684
           

4/21/80 Bear Mkt Low:

  

759.13

  

B-4/24/80@797.10

50

  

$207,140
 

B-6/11/80@872.70

50

 < Fully Invested at 100%  

Average Buy 834.90

$218,997
           

Bull-7/14/80@905.55
(S&P@120.01)

 n/a    
                Year-end 12/31/80@963.99

$249,170

4/27/81 Bull Mkt High:

1024.05

S-7/2/81@959.19

50

$254,615

S-8/31/81@881.47

50

 < to 100% 'cash'

Average Sell 920.33

$248,327

Bear-9/23/81@840.94
(S&P@115.65)

 n/a
                Year-end 12/31/1@75.00

$257,801
 

8/12/82 Bear Mkt Low:

776.92
 

B-8/23/82@891.17

50

  

$275,995
   

B-Bull-9/3/82@925.13
(S&P@122.68)

 50

< Fully Invested at 100%

$281,882
   

B-10/7/82@965.97

 n/a         Average Buy 908.15  
                Year-end 12/31/82@1046.54

$325,102
                Year-end 12/30/83@1258.64

$408,649

S-1/24/84@1242.88

50

$404,713

S-2/22/84@1134.21

50

< to 100% 'cash'

Average Sell 1188.55

$389,072

B-8/21/84@1239.73

50

 No Bear Market  

$406,628

B-8/9/84@1224.05

 50 < Fully Invested at 100%  

Average Buy 1241.94

$403,118

                Year-end 12/31/84@1211.57

$406,297
                Year-end 12/31/85@1546.67

$541,160
                Year-end 12/31/86@1895.95

$686,706

8/25/87 Bull Mkt High:

2722.42

  

S-10/14/87@2412.70

50

$892,979

S-10/16/87@2246.74

50

< to 100% 'cash'
 Bear-10/16/87@2246.74
(S&P@282.70)

 n/a

Average Sell 2329.72

$862,488
Capitulation

%

The Dow Theory

%

Schannep Indicator

%

Official Bull or Bear

%

COMPOSITE

Value

B-10/19/87@1738.74

50

 This Capitulation Buy could have been handled similar to 8/23/90 below

10/19/87 Bear Mkt Low:

1738.74

$862,883
B-12/3/87@1776.53 25  

$877,169
                Year-end 12/31/87@1938.83

$940,106
   

B-1/5/88@2031.50

 25 < Fully Invested at 100%     Average Buy 1821.38

$974,231
   

B-2/29/88@2071.62
due to Bull definition being met

n/a

Bull-2/29/88@2071.62
(S&P@267.82)                 

n/a

 

  
                Year-end 12/30/88@2168.57

$1,309,830

S-10/13/89@2569.26

50

   No Bear market

$1,309,830
          Year-end 12/31/89@2753.20

$1,372,131
   

B-5/11/90@2801.58

50

< Fully Invested at 100%

        

$1,412,338

7/16/90 Bull Mkt High:

2999.75

 

S-8/2/90@2864.60

50

 

  

$1,456,511

B-8/23/90@2483.42

50

This Capitulation Buy reaffirms the 50% invested position and offsets the Bear Sell signal and negates the Schannep Timing Indicator Sell

S-8/23/90@2483.42 due to Bear definition being met, reduce to 50% invest-ed as capitulation was occurring

n/a

Bear-8/23/90@2483.42
(S&P@307.06)          

n/a    
             

 
         

10/11/90 Bear Mkt Low:

2365.10

 
   

B-11/12/90@2540.35

50

 < Fully Invested at 100%      

$1,395,134
                Year-end 12/31/90@2633.66

$1,453,949
   

B-1/25/91@2659.41 due to Bull definition being met

n/a

Bull-2/6/91@2830.94
(S&P@358.07)

 n/a

 

  
Year-end 12/31/91@3168.83

$1,804,443
Year-end 12/31/92@3301.11

$1,934,655
Year-end 12/31/93@3754.09

$2,262,056

S-6/20/94@3741.90

50

 No Bear Market

$2,281,909
                Year-end 12/3/94@3834.44

$2,354,268

B-2/22/95@3973.05

50

< Fully Invested at 100%

$2,410,786
                Year-end 12/29/95@5117.12

$3,166,568
                Year-end 12/31/96@6448.27

$4,073,566
                Year-end 12/31/97@7908.25

$5,079,570

7/17/98 Bull Mkt High:

9337.97

S-8/4/98@8487.31

50

$5,503,536

S-8/27/98@8165.99

50

 < to 100% 'cash'  

Average Sell 8326.65

$5,410,409
           

Bear-8/31/98@7539.07
(S&P@957.28)

 n/a    
Capitulation

%

The Dow Theory

%

Schannep Indicator

%

Official Bull or Bear

%

COMPOSITE

Value

B-8/31/98@7539.07

50

        

8/31/98 Bear Mkt Low:

  

7539.07

$5,413,154

B-9/14/98@7945.35

50

 < Fully Invested at 100% Average Buy 7742.21

$5,565,709

   

B-11/5/98@8915.47
(8227.27 ave Buy level)

n/a

    

      

 
           

Bull-11/6/98@8975.46
(S&P@1141.01)

 n/a    
                Year-end 12/31/98@9181.43

$6,463,390
S-8/30/99@10914.14

50

$7,762,395

S-9/23/99@10318.59

50

 < to 100% 'cash' No Bear Market Average Sell 10616.37

$7,565,949
B-12/3/99@11286.18

50

  

$7,635,834
                Year-end 12/31/99@11497.12

$7,725,746
1/14/00 Bull Mkt high: 11,722.98  
                Year-end 12/29/00@10786.85

$7,757,797

 

   S-3/16/01@9823.41
due to Bear definition being met		 n/a S-Bear-3/16/01@9823.41
(S&P@1150.53)         		50 9,823.41 < to 100% 'cash'

$7,461,953
B-9/20/01@8376.21 50  

$7,593,158
9/21/01 Bear Mkt low: 8,235.81

 
B-11/6/01@9591.12 50 < Fully Invested at 100% Average Buy 8983.67

$8,164,111
B-11/19/01@9976.46
due to Bull definition being met		 n/a Bull-11/19/01@9976.46
(S&P500@1151.06)		 n/a
                Year-end 12/31/01@10021.50

$8,555,216

3/19/02 Bull Mkt High:

10,635.25

S-6/3/02@9709.79

 50

$8,352,706

S-7/3/02@9054.97

 50

< to 100% 'cash'

Average Sell 9382.38

$8,082,528
           

Bear-7/10/02@8813.50
 (S&P@920.47)

 n/a    
B-7/19/02@8019.26 50  

$8,088,268

B-8/14/02@8743.31
 

 50

< Fully Invested at 100%

Average Buy 8381.29

$8,464,437

S-9/17/02@8207.55

 50

$7,961,912
Capitulation

%

The Dow Theory

%

Schannep Indicator

%

Official Bull or Bear

%

COMPOSITE

Value

B-10/9/02@7286.27

50

This Capitulation Buy reaffirms the 50% invested position

      

10/9/02 Bear Mkt low:

7,286.27

  

B-11/4/02@8571.60

50

< Fully Invested at 100%

 

  

 

$8,157,359

B-11/5/02@8678.27

 n/a

Bull-11/21/02@8845.15
(S&P500@933.76)

 n/a
                Year-end 12/31/02@8341.63

$7,966,886

S-1/24/03@8131.01

 50

$7,776,911
   

B-4/22/03@8484.99

 50

< Fully Invested at 100%

   No Bear Market    

$7,978,357
                Year-end 12/31/3@10453.92

$9,974,081
    S-5/10/04@9990.02 50

 

        

$9,599,414
       

S-8/5/04 @9963.03

 50 < to 100% 'cash'  

Average Sell 9976.53

 $9,622,978
    B-11/3/04@10137.05 50     No Bear Market    

$9,661,729
       

B-11/22/04 @10489.42

 50 < Fully Invested at 100%  

Average Buy 10313.24

 $9,839,996
                Year-end 12/31/04@10783.01

$10,137,936
                Year-end 12/30/05@10717.50

$10,312,948
       

S-7/12/06@11013.18

 50 No Bear Market     $10,721,269
       

B-10/12/06@11947.70

 50 < Fully Invested at 100%     $11,271,001
                Year-end 12/29/06@12463.15

$11,810,491
   

S-8/14/07@13028.92

 50          

$12,508,531
   

 

      

10/9/07 Bull Mkt High:

14,164.53

  
                Year-end 12/31/07@13264.82

$12,758,194
       

S-1/15/08@12501.11

 50

< to 100% 'cash'

  

Average Sell: 12765.02

$12,401,305
           

Bear-3/7/08@11893.69
(S%P500@1293.37)

 n/a    
   

B-4/18/08@12849.36

 50

 

  

No Bull market

    

$12,459,309
   

S-6/20/08@11842.69

 50

< to 100% 'cash'

        

$12,012,662

B-10/7/08@9447.11

50

               $12,061,726
B-11/12/08@8282.66 25               $11,336,165
           

11/20/08 Bear Mkt Low:

7552.29

  
   

B-12/8/08@8934.18

 25

< Fully Invested at 100%

      

Average Buy: 9027.77

 $12,024,285
            Year-end 12/31/08@8776.39

$11,834,613
       

B-1/2/09@9034.69
due to Bull definition being met

 n/a

Bull-1/2/09@9034.69
(S&P500@931.80)

 n/a    
           

1/2/09 Bull Mkt High:

9034.69

  
Capitulation

%

The Dow Theory

%

Schannep Indicator

%

Official Bull or Bear

%

COMPOSITE

Value
   

S-1/30/09@8000.86

 50      

$10,824,474
   

 

  

S-2/19/09@7465.95 due to Bear definition being met, however No action needed be taken as capitulation was occurring

 n/a

Bear-2/19/09@7465.95
(S&P500@778.94)

 50

Average Sell: 7733.40

$10,474,585

B-2/23/09@7114.78

50

This Capitulation Buy reaffirms/reinstates the 50% invested position

         $10,474,816
           

3/9/09 Bear Mkt Low:

6547.05

 
   

B-3/23/09@7775.86

50

< Fully Invested at 100%

  

Average Buy: 7445.32

 $10,978,933
       

B-3/26/09@7924.56
due to Bull definition being met

 n/a

Bull-3/26/09@7924.56
(S&P500@832.86)

 n/a    
                Year-end 12/31/09@10428.05

$15,087,832
   

S-6/4/10@9931.97

 50    

No Bear market

     $14,538,305
   

B-9/20/10@10753.62

50

< Fully Invested at 100%

         $15,206,408
                Year-end 12/31/10@11577.51

$16,492,964
           

4/29/11 Bull Mkt High:

  

12810.54

  
   

S-8/2/11@11866.62

 50           $17,192,248
B-8/8/11@10809.85 50

This Capitulation Buy reaffirms the 50% invested position and offsets the Bear Sell signal and negates the Schannep Timing Indicator Sell (similar to 8/23/90)

             $16,417,416
     

S-8/10/11@10719.94 due to Bull definition being met, however No action needed be taken as capitulation was occurring

 n/a

Bear-8/10/11@10719.94
(S&P500@1120.76)

 n/a    
                 
   

B-8/29/11@11539.25

50

< Fully Invested at 100%

  

Average Buy: 11174.55

$16,985,286
NOTE: This is a 13.68% compound annual increase since 12/31/53 (58 years) vrs a 10.40% gain for Buy & Hold over the same period.
     My thanks to Tom Halgren, a subscriber with a sharp eye for detail, for finding numerous typos/errors/mistakes in the previously shown results. He and I believe this/his recalculation is as true and correct as is possible to construct.

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